John McCain And What to Expect Going Forward

John McCain is the mathematical favorite to get the Republican presidential nomination after Super Tuesday. McCain reigns in this new position of hierarchy due to several factors exclusive of the Republican conservative vote.

Two factors played a significant role in McCain’s ascension to probable nominee. His position is a product of the apocryphal liberal main stream media’s calculated adoration of him and a systematically undemocratic nominating process.

The liberal media has been fawning over McCain chiefly because of his aiding them in bashing the Republican party and his liberal position on immigration: The McCain-Kennedy Bill. The media had an extraordinary influence on his surge in the polls before Super Tuesday with its pro-McCain rhetoric and damaging critical rhetoric of his opponents.

The nominating process is fundamentally undemocratic for both the Republican and Democrat party, more so with the Democrat party with the use of Super Delegates. McCain, with the contradictory primary and caucus rules from state to state, has emerged with the support of Democrats, independents and faux Republicans before half the nation has had a chance to choose a nominee of their choice.

By the time Super Tuesday was over with, McCain was the odds on favorite because of his surge in delegate count, and the departure from the race by Mitt Romney. This left almost half the states in U.S. without representation in the full nominating process. By the time their caucuses and primaries were held they were left with only two choices: McCain and Huckabee. There is also a chance that by the time Texas and Ohio’s primaries take place in March, McCain could be the only candidate left. Not only does this process run counter to a democratic process, but would also leave an enormous cross section of Republican voters disenfranchised from the nominating process. McCain has the unenviable position of trying to energize a large section of the Republican party that, by the time their caucuses and primaries roll around, and if they were Romney supporters, their enthusiasm and significance would have yielded to apathy.

The question most traditional conservatives are asking themselves is should I, could I, would I, vote for John McCain if he is running in the general election on the Republican ticket. How energized can the base be when they feel there choices are a Democrat liberal or a Republican liberal? How energized can the base be when they feel that the stronger conservative candidates have been left at the way side by the process?

There are several influential conservative pundits who have stated they will not vote for John McCain in the general election, but would rather vote for Clinton if she gets the nomination. There was no mention of what if Obama gets the nomination–which at this point is more probable than not. The polling numbers do show a cross section of conservatives who will not support McCain in the general election regardless of who he runs against-they will not caste a vote.

McCain gave a very compelling speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference last week. He appealed to the conservative base, among boos during parts of the speech that touched on immigration, that his position is a fundamental conservative position. It was compelling but not many people were compelled. It did raise a few eyebrows and at best put McCain antagonists in a wait and see mode.

What can be expected going forward with the McCain nomination process?

McCain wants the conservative base to believe he can unite the Republican party. He is doing a lot of talking but is not doing a lot of doing. He is talking about uniting the Republican party but has displayed no action. McCain, if he secures the nomination, will come to a fork in the road that leads to the general election. He will either embrace the conservative base, which he needs to do if he wants to win in the general election, or he can turn left, which history dictates he will and try to win with the Hispanic and independent vote, thus freeing him from any obligation to the party he has become antithetical to.

He seems to be positioning himself to turn left by keeping Juan Hernandez and Jerry Perenchio on his campaign staff. These two individuals were on the wrong side of the phenomenal grass roots movement that killed the McCain-Kennedy illegal alien amnesty bill. They are still on the wrong side and so is McCain by association. By eliminating Juan Hernandez and Jerry Perenchio from his inner circle he could prevail upon a sizable number of anti-McCain Republican voters.

Illegal immigration is the albatross around McCain’s neck. McCain has two options at this point concerning illegal immigration: First, he can actually take action and disassociate with Juan Hernandez and Jerry Perenchio and embrace the will of the people and choose to not only close the borders with a fence but declare he will not let any piece of legislation pass his desk, as President, that grants amnesty to anyone in this country illegally. Second, he can stay on his immigration course and hope that the Hispanic vote will get him elected in the general election rather than a Democrat.

The media will start cannibalizing their creation, McCain, the moment there is a definitive Democrat nominee. His only salvation with some, not all, of the media is to revert back to bashing the Republican party and highlighting his leftist views. This still will not help him win the general election.

One scenario equally as important as McCain’s immigration policy is his vice-presidential choice. A few names floating around are some of his apostate Republican brethren: Governor Rick Perry of Texas, Governor Charlie Crist of Florida and Mike Huckabee. Also in the mix is Independent/Democrat Joe Lieberman. Any one of these potential candidates has the ability to help McCain or hurt his campaign in the general election. If he choses the right fork in the road, each and every one of them would make it difficult to energize the Republican base in the general election. But if he choses to take the left fork in the road they would be assets to his campaign.

McCain is going to have to make some hard decisions whether he is going to be who he really is or who he needs to be to get elected in the general election. At this point, either direction is truly, at its core, unacceptable but possibly palatable if you hold your nose.